Preliminary confidence
- Sample · Cedarline Logistics · Senior secured · Performing — Watch Covenants are holding. Reporting is clean. One customer represents 40% of revenue and the contract renews in six months. Nothing in the compliance certificate mentions it.
Two active hypotheses · none eliminated
Customer loss or repricing would breach covenant compliance within one quarter.
The borrower is reporting what keeps it in compliance. Not what the lender needs to know.
What would change this conclusion
Confirmed renewal on similar terms moves this to Stood Down — concern closes. Loss of the anchor customer without prior disclosure moves to Action-Ready — the lender needs to act.